iPhone Pro

Jun 6, 10:26 PM  

Even though I’m not very excited about 3G, I am very excited about the upcoming iPhone 2.0 software release. Sure, there’s the App Store, but there’s also searching your contacts!

(Okay, maybe it is about the App Store.)

It’s a pity that the hardware upgrade and software upgrades have become conflated into one generic “3G iPhone” release, which is not what I think is going to be the case at all. This is going to be vastly more exciting than just a speed bump. Here are my predictions for the next few weeks.

First, the iPhone 2.0 update will be compatible with existing hardware. The existing models will be able to run the new applications, mostly without any problems. The iPhone 2.0 update may not be free, but it will be backwards compatible. That’s important because:

The iPhone line will split on hardware, but stay unified on software. There will be a 3G iPhone, but it’s not going to be called that — my money’s on ‘iPhone Pro,’ the obvious choice. It may be a different design, or it may be the same shell with different colors, but it will likely have both the faster networking and larger drives in the line.

As a result, the original iPhone will either drop in price (again), or disappear entirely. If they keep the existing models but drop the price below $300 USD, the other manufacturers will be even more nervous than they are now. If they go to $250? Expect outright panic.

(I still think there will be an EDGE version with a small hard drive available as the base model, no matter what.)

Now, if Apple kills the existing design outright — and don’t think they won’t, remember the iPod mini — they may still go for the lower prices to compete with RIM and Windows Mobile smartphones. I’m not really sure about this, though. It’s most likely that they’ll start as high as they think they can go and reduce prices down through the end of the year.

I think 3G is going to be the least exciting thing about the fourth iPhone.

Next week should be interesting.